This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week and I can not wait to chase those huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first seat into it a week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will probably have a couple shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week at his -800 gaming lineup. I will take that free square foot and move on. He should dominate this fight and he can finish it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I’m making lineups, I would like to attempt to have at least 10x from each fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones could find a finish then maybe he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. However, this is a possible 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones since he will be very highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the area and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then will kill half the field since that wouldn’t be sufficient points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be from his wrestling. He is among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, so that I expect him to shoot for takedowns right away and string wrestle till he receives them. Once he receives high control there isn’t likely to be a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he must take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that is what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the victory.
Underdog drama of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most nowadays, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I don’t see him becoming knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez are the more likely guy to be on top if the fight hits the floor. There is A submission the best chance at a win of Gall and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for all those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision win here I think he can become 10x that salary and when we could get a win against him at that inexpensive salary, then I think we’ll probably be in line for this $50k win if we hit our other 5 spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the man I need the very least of. I attempt to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of this week but I don’t believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I believe a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and that he actually doesn’t possess the 1 punch/kick power it would take to pull off. I’d be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, then he would be an easy fade.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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